[Column] Six scenarios of the end of Mr Putin's war-Cruz

(Bloomberg): No one knows what the end of Russia's war of aggression on Ukraine will be. However, most scenarios are bad or even worse than that bad. To keep things organized, let's start with the anecdote of President Putin and the mouse.

President Putin looks back on his boyhood and tells the story of when he once chased a mouse in the hallway. It is said that the cornered mouse turned around and attacked Mr Putin.

Why did Putin make this anecdote recurring among Russian watchers? There are many views that they are threatening to go around. In other words, it's an implicit message that Putin himself is the mouse and has nuclear claws, so don't hunt him down.

Putin has been isolated by all means these days and is confined to his spiritual world. Unlike its predecessors in the former Soviet era, it has no political bureau and no reliable check-and-balance. I have decided by myself.

From the perspective of a mouse, the corridor is blocked in all directions. With that in mind, let's consider the following six scenarios.

Ukraine victory

It is unlikely from military power that Ukraine's heroic defense efforts will actually repel Russian troops. But of course that would be a good ending for most of the world. Ukraine, which has been hurt but victorious, will work with the more united European Union (EU) to accelerate its integration with Western democracies. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will have a new sense of purpose. China, which is looking at Taiwan, will hesitate to cause trouble on its own.

Ukraine's victory shatters all of Putin's propaganda. Putin knows that defeat means political death. That's why Putin shouldn't allow this scenario to come true. Instead of withdrawing, you will move on to one of the following three options.

Russian terror politics

Use only conventional weapons and can dramatically escalate attacks. That basically means surrendering Ukraine to the bombing. There will be tremendous sacrifices to civilians and military personnel, but Mr Putin will not care. Ukraine may be taken in as a nominally independent puppet state, or as part of Greater Russia, and Belarus may be added there as well.